The institutional impact of war

The privatization of war has already started, and it has more impact than what we can imagine.

Meta is downranking Russian Media

Sounds good. But this will cause every large country to start slowly pushing out global tech products in favor of their own in the future. News is a big commodity – and dependency on a few companies will slowly start to ebb away as countries scramble to reduce their dependency on them. Literally every single government in the world will start to realize that they don’t want a Delaware company to have control over their news. Even the ones that didn’t care till now. And as a general citizen, you will be forced to gulp down the news that they want you to hear.

Starlink sent satellites to Ukrainian airspace

Nice touch – but this will also mean that the space is now a battleground for countries that believe that their autonomy is being questioned. You will find new companies that want to launch their own bunch of satellites, and they will now be government-backed because the governments will now want autonomy over their microwave bands. As a normal person, you will lose out as regulations are put in place to stem out innovation. Your internet will be slower as countries refuse to accept global providers, and your life will stay a step behind the best of cutting-edge technology.

Stripe/PayPal/VISA have stopped operating

Sound simple – but this will mean that all other countries will start developing their own payment solutions to keep them away from the hands of outsiders. It sounds like a large loss in the short term – but the gain will be quite large too down the line for countries that need it. As a regular citizen, you will be forced to accept higher transaction fees and creaming as local players start to whisper in the ears of the policymakers.

Coinbase has blocked accounts

This is the first time some people are realizing that even digital currencies are not safe from sanctions. Borderless companies trading in crypto will grow out to be the next generation of Mafia, and as a general citizen, you will be forced to accept volatile currencies as a part of life.

Cisco, Oracle, Ericsson have stopped supplying Russia

We don’t realize how much of our connectivity depends on these companies. If you did any form of Banking today, you must have used a solution from them. If you made a phone-call, or ordered chocolates online – you used their solution. Countries will now try to avoid global organizations that can make them so dependent. In return, local residents will lose out on the security gains that globalization used to offer. They will hear your whispers.

Apple & Google have stopped physical sales

It’s not just them, but almost all global brands did. The market didn’t die. The supply did. It will now be filled by local players who will be offered tax rebates and preferential policies. As a normal citizen, you will be forced to use sub-par local products. You may live in a completely different country altogether and yet be impacted by that kind of thought process.

Overall, the impact goes beyond the war. Small actions from gaming companies like Activision or EA won’t have immediate repercussions, but it is going to hit the spots that we didn’t ask for.